With the advance of the corn campaign, the development of the crops and the harvest of the first lots of corn early in Brazil, the high expectations for South American cereal are strengthened. In 2019/20, for the second consecutive cycle, Brazil (101 Mt) and Argentina (50 Mt) will overcome the productive barrier of 150 Mt. In addition, their combined exports will reach 69.5 Mt falling more than 8.5 Mt compared to those of the previous campaign, but becoming the second best record in history. The USDA estimates shipments of Argentine corn by 33.5 Mt that could even be increased taking into account that the Affidavits of Foreign Sales already total more than 19.3 Mt.
In 2019/20, South American corn is called to capture the largest share of the international market, keeping 42% of external sales. The United States, the usual dominator of the international corn market, will capture 26% of the trade in the campaign, giving the first place of the podium to Brazil and Argentina for the second consecutive cycle.
Previously, Brazil and Argentina had managed to displace American corn only when farmers had suffered significant productive losses such as in the drought of the 2012/13 campaign. The current scenario, however, is very different since the United States retains a large exportable balance, accumulating stocks in recent cycles but losing ground due to lack of competitiveness. In contrast to this, the producers in Brazil and Argentina keep their commitment to corn high, especially for late corn, being able to establish themselves in the global market.
According to the latest estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the 2019/20 business cycle will leave the world’s lowest corn stocks in the last five campaigns. For the first time since the 2014/15 cycle, world cereal stocks will fall below 300 million tons, reaching 296.8 Mt. In its latest Global Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, the USDA cut its forecast of stocks in the hands of the main exporters at the end of the campaign. Part of the fall is based on higher estimated exports for Ukraine, although the main origin of the fall in world stocks is Brazil. The South American giant, with an expected production of 101 Mt, will increase its domestic demand for corn as fodder