The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange estimated a planting intention for the 2020-2021 campaign of a total of 33.15 million hectares, which reflects a 1.2% drop compared to the previous cycle.
Meanwhile, regarding the harvest, it is estimated that it could reach 120.8 million tons, which shows a decrease of 6.1% against the 2019-2020 cycle.
This was stated by Esteban Copati, head of Agricultural Estimates of the entity in a virtual presentation and stressed that the climatic scenario will be decisive this year, “limiting not only the planted area but also the expected yields for each of the most important crops in Argentina”.
The most affected crops would be wheat, corn and sunflower, and if this scenario is confirmed, it would be the second consecutive season with a drop in total numbers.
Exports, for their part, would be around 25,000 million dollars next year, with a year-on-year decrease of -3%.
Agustín Tejeda Rodriguez, chief economist of the entity, and Nelson Illescas, director of the INAI Foundation, analyzed the complex scenario under which the new production cycle will unfold.
“Trade flows and the prices of agricultural products are affected by disruptive factors such as the coronavirus, the trade war between China and the United States and the African Swine Fever, which cause significant variability and are far from being resolved,” Illescas said.
They explained that the recent recovery in prices, explained by fundamental factors and the weakness of the US dollar, allows producer margins to recover, after being well below those of the previous season.
The president of the Cereal Exchange, José Martins, stated that “as a Stock Exchange we reaffirm our commitment to generate transparent, valuable and reliable information”.
The Minister of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries of the Nation, Luis Basterra, highlighted the efforts of Argentine producers who face a difficult wheat campaign with the dry season, which lowers production expectations, but at the same time maintains the commitment to the thick crop.
He also said that he predicts a 2020-2021 campaign without accessibility restrictions to inputs that are priced in dollars.